1. Vladimir Kramnik (2787)(3) Chance: 25%
Vladimir Kramnik (world #3) was unbeatable in the World Cup and narrowly lost out last year on tiebreaks to Carlsen (the current World Champion) in what seemed to be a case of divine tiebreak intervention (via Vassily Ivanchuk and Peter Svidler). I really like his chances this year; he’s got some customers in the group and his form seems to be good. In order to win Kramnik is going to need to take everyone in the group seriously (see his results against Andreikin). Here are his classical results against the current field. Perhaps the most interesting thing to note is that Kramnik and Topalov have managed to largely avoid each other in classical games since their championship match. They’re last classical game was 2008 in Corus! Here’s a fine game of his against my other favorite for winning the tournament Aronian:
Here are Kramnik’s results against the field:
| Opponent | Result (W-L-D) | Last 5 Games |
|---|---|---|
| Levon Aronian | 7-3-19 | 1-1-3 |
| Vesilin Topalov | 14-9-32 | 2-2-1 |
| Viswanathan Anand | 8-10-67 | 0-0-5 |
| Sergey Karjakin | 2-0-8 | 0-1-4 |
| Peter Svidler | 7-3-18 | 1-1-3 |
| Shakhriyar Mamedyarov | 2-0-7 | 2-0-3 |
| Dmitry Andreikin | 1-3-3 | 1-2-2 |